Chapter 9: Population projections
Population projections are made in order to provide future estimates of the population size and structure to planners, policy makers and researchers. Such projections are based on past trends of fertility, mortality and migration as well as on assumptions on how these factors develop in the future. The size and structure of the projected population will depend on these assumptions.
The population projections in this report cover the period of 2006-2020. There are two projections made: the first one is what will happen if the 2005 levels of fertility and mortality prevail for the projection period (2006-2020) which means levels of fertility and mortality are the same as 1995, and the second one is based on a continued decline in fertility and mortality.
9.1. Population
Projection in the 1995 Census
The population in the 1995 census was projected up to 2020 also in two alternatives. One assumed that the 1995 fertility and mortality levels would prevail, another assumed declines in fertility and mortality. The first projections estimated a population of 5,916 thousand people in 2005 and the second (more realistic) projection a population of 5,763 thousand people in 2005. Neither of the projections took into account of any negative migration abroad, but assumed that migration, as situation at that time indicated, would be negligible. With that clarification the first projections made from the 1995 census look pretty accurate.
9.2. Annual Estimated Populations 1995 – 2005
With knowledge about the most recent estimates of fertility and mortality and net-migration annually projected populations during the intercensal period have been calculated and the results are given in the table below. The demographic characteristics providing this estimate are the followings:
􀂙 Total fertility rate
(TFR) declined from 5.0 in 1995 (and estimated from the 1995 census) to
4.5 in 2005
􀂙 The gross reproduction rate (GRR), the number of daughters a women gives
birth to, reduced from 2.4 to 2.2
􀂙 The net reproduction rate (NRR), the number of daughters a woman leaves
behind while accounting for the possibility of her death before the end
of her reproductive period, unchanged at 1.9
􀂙 A negative net-migration of about 15 000 persons per year, evenly divided
between men and women
􀂙 Life expectancies at birth increased from 51.4 years for males in 1995
to 59.1 years and for women from 55.0 to 63.0 years
􀂙 Crude birth rate (CBR) per 1000 fell from 36.6 in 1995 to 34.3 in 2005
􀂙 Crude death rate (CDR) per 1000 fell from 13.6 in 1995 to 9.6 in 2005
Under these circumstances the theoretical population would grow from 4 575 million in 1995 to 5 646 in 2005 as the table 9.1 indicates. The estimated population is thus only marginally higher than the enumerated population in 2005 – the difference is only about 20 000 persons.
The intercensal projections also show that the annual number of births and deaths are higher than the enumerated figures. The annual number of births was thus estimated at 167 000 in 1995 and at 193 800, while the enumeration stops at 109 000 in 1995 and 195 000 in 2005. Similar under-enumeration can be spotted for number of deaths.
It should be noted that even though fertility was declining for the intercensal period, nevertheless the yearly number of births is likely to increase due to structural effects. Increasingly large cohorts of women enter reproductive ages and therefore more children are born even though TFR declines. As it can be seen in table 9.1 Women in reproductive ages are taken an increasingly higher share of the population or from 45.6 percent in 1995 to 49.1 percent in 2005.
The table on intercensal estimated population shows that the actual population growth for 2005 is estimated at 2.1 percent, but the natural population growth (real net increase, RNI), that is, crude birth rate minus crude death rate is about 2.5 percent. Furthermore, there seems to be no reduction in the natural growth rate during the intercensal period. The fact that actual growth rate is lower is due to negative net-migration, i.e. people has emigrated in greater numbers than those who has immigrated.
9.3. Population Projections
2005-2020
Based on the enumerated population in the 2005 population census projections have been made up to 2020. The main projection is presented in Table 9.2 and the projection shows what would happen assuming a reasonable decline in fertility and mortality. The assumptions behind the projection are as depicted in the following table. In summary the assumptions are:
􀂙 TFR declines
from 4.5 in 2005 to 2.1 in 2020
í²™ Life expectancies for males and females increase from 59 and 63 in 2005
to 70 and 74 years in 2020, respectively.
􀂙 Infant mortality decreases from 70 per 1000 in 2005 to 34.2 per 1000
in 2020
í²™ Net migration is assumed to increase from -15 000 persons per year to
-20 000 persons in 2020
í²™ The annual number of births would decrease from about 190 000 in 2005
to about 136 000 in 2020
í²™ The crude birth rate decreases from about 34 per 1000 in 2005 to about
19 per 1000 in 2020
As the above table demonstrates the natural growth rate of the population will remain at 2.4 percent the next years but drop to 2.2 percent in 2010 and to 1.9 percent in 2015 and to 1.4 percent in 2020. With a continued and somewhat increased negative net immigration the actual growth rate will drop from current 2.5 percent down to 1.1 percent in 2020. The population size in 2020 would with these assumptions reach 7,260 thousand persons. With constant 2005 mortality, fertility and net-migration the population would instead reach 7,990 thousand by 2020, more than 730 thousand more compared to the more realistic projection with falling fertility and mortality.
The age structure of the 2020 projected population is also shown in a population pyramid. The population in working ages will slowly increase as percentage of total population, from 57 percent in 2005 to 59 and 61 percent in 2010 and 2020, respectively.
The age structure of the 2020 projected population is also shown in a population pyramid. The population in working ages will slowly increase as percentage of total population, from 57 percent in 2005 to 59 and 61 percent in 2010 and 2020, respectively.
As noted, the projection for 2020 assumes that in this year TFR will reach the reproductive level of about 2.1. (see table 9.2). In this respect it must be noted that fertility trends have pointed downwards in almost all countries since the 1970s. Especially in recent years it has become apparent that fertility is likely to remain below replacement level in many countries during the next decades. The population aged 65+ in Lao PDR is likely to remain very low during the next decades.
It might not be happening in the Lao PDR because fertility is likely to remain well above the reproductive level. However, because fertility now is falling and possibly quite rapidly, it is important that some thought is given to the future age-distribution of the population. This can be done by means of population projections.
Table 9.3 shows a hypothetical projection based on demographic estimates for 2005. In this projection the population estimate for 2020 is about 7.9 million. The corresponding population estimate in table 9.2 is 7.3 million. Projections show rounded figures and are subject to revision when demographic estimates have been finalized.
Contents:
- Population Size and structure
- Population Distribution and Migration Household Characteristics
- Education and Literacy
- Activity and Labor Force
- Fertility
- Mortality
- Housing Characteristics
- Population Projections
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